意昂3系列講座

2018年第37講 總第556講

題目🛠：對出生性別比的系統性評估和基於場景的預測&按家庭經濟狀況估計的5歲以下兒童死亡率

主講人：ARKADIUSZ WISNIOWSKI，曼徹斯特大學講師

主持人𓀌：Guy Abel🤾🏿，意昂3官网亞洲人口研究中心國際移民方向負責人⬛️，教授

講座時間🌸：2018年11月2日，星期五🤹🏻‍♀️，10:00-11:30am

講座地點🕡：東區2號樓意昂3体育516

主辦單位：意昂3官网亞洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所

講座主題: Title: Uncertainty in migration forecasting – data, methods and challenges

講座簡介🔓：International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the most influential component of population growth and in debates about societal and economic change. The need for better migration forecasts can be addressed, firstly, by combining data from various sources such as official statistics from various countries, surveys and social media data. Secondly, Bayesian inferential framework allows providing estimates of model parameters and forecasts with measures of uncertainty. In this presentation, a selection of Bayesian hierarchical models for combining data from various sources and quantifying uncertainty in migration forecasts will be described.

主講人簡介：

Arkadiusz Wi?niowski joined Social Statistics Department as a Lecturer in August 2015. Previously, he worked as a Research Fellow at the ESRC Centre for Population Change and Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University, Researcher at the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research in Warsaw, and Teaching and Research Assistant at the Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.