Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth
作者:Abela, GJ (Abela, Guy J.)[ 1,2 ] ; Barakat, B (Barakat, Bilal)[ 2 ] ; Samir, KC (Samir, K. C.)[ 1,2 ] ; Lutz, W (Lutz, Wolfgang)[ 2 ]
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷: 113 期: 50 頁: 14294-14299
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1611386113
出版年: DEC 13 2016
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
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JCR®類別
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類別中的排序
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JCR 分區
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MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
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4/63
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Q1
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出版商NATL ACAD SCIENCES, 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
IS0027-8424
Science & Technology - Other Topics
摘要
Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.
關鍵詞
作者信息
通訊作者地址: Samir, KC (通訊作者)
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Shanghai Univ, Asian Demog Res Inst, Shanghai 200444, Peoples R China.
增強組織信息的名稱
Shanghai University
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通訊作者地址: Samir, KC; Lutz, W (通訊作者)
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Vienna Univ Econ & Business, Wittgenstein Ctr Demog & Global Human Capital, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Vienna Inst Demog,Austrian Acad Sci, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
增強組織信息的名稱
Austrian Academy of Sciences
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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